Will Donald Trump say “Military / Veteran”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Military / Veteran” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Military / Veteran
- Probability
- 56% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…stories or two secret service people that got shot or there were military people actually that got shot and the woman died and the young…
…trillion, the largest investment we've ever made. We have the most powerful military in the world. We have the greatest military in the world. And…
…pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like a military invasion. And if they win the midterms,
…seen there's a very clear connection between transnational cyber syndicates and enemy militaries in how they fund themselves, how they support their activities. So, if…
…the hottest country in the world right now. We have the best military, the best everything. We made the largest ever investment in the United…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Military / Veteran |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Military / Veteran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Military / Veteran | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Military / Veteran”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Military / Veteran” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Military / Veteran” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Military / Veteran’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/military-or-veteran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=military%20%2F%20veteran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP