Will Donald Trump say “Nobel Peace Prize”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel Peace Prize” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 30, 2025 (20%), most recently on Sep 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel Peace Prize
- Probability
- 49% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I came…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…they all had it wrong. They had it wrong. But the Nobel Peace Prize, uh, everybody said, "Well, you'll get it." They said, "I'll get…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Nobel Peace Prize |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Nobel Peace Prize |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Nobel Peace Prize | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Nobel Peace Prize | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Nobel Peace Prize | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel Peace Prize”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel Peace Prize” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 30, 2025 (20%), most recently on Sep 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel Peace Prize” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel Peace Prize’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nobel-peace-prize (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nobel%20peace%20prize · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP