# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-11 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT11 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:35:54Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-11 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement on October 10th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	64	53	0.83	YYYYYnYYYY	0.84	no
Democrat	democrat	14	11	0.79	YnYYYYYYYY	0.71	yes
Tariff	tariff	35	27	0.77	nYYnYYYnnY	0.69	yes
Deal	deal	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	0.68	yes
Border	border	34	24	0.71	nYnYYYYYYY	0.67	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	10	7	0.7	nnnYYYYYYY	0.67	no
Hottest	hottest	18	11	0.61	YnnnYYYYnY	0.61	yes
Tylenol	tylenol	3	3	1	YYY	0.59	no
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	2	2	1	YY	0.57	yes
Radical Left	radical left	6	5	0.83	YYYYnY	0.57	no
National Guard	national guard	11	6	0.55	YYYYnnnnYY	0.57	no
Drug	drug	6	4	0.67	nYYnYY	0.53	yes
Military / Veteran	military|veteran	1	1	1	Y	0.52	yes
Israel	israel	39	22	0.56	nYnYYYnnYY	0.51	yes
Chicago	chicago	7	3	0.43	YnnnnYY	0.51	yes
Melania	melania	11	4	0.36	nYnnnYnnYY	0.51	no
Terrorist	terrorist	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.5	no
Hamas	hama	21	11	0.52	YnYYnnYYYn	0.49	yes
Portland	portland	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.48	yes
Nobel Peace Prize	nobel peace prize	1	1	1	Y	0.47	no
Economy	economy	7	4	0.57	YYnnnYY	0.47	no
Schumer	schumer	2	1	0.5	nY	0.44	no
Antifa	antifa	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	0.44	no
Fake News	fake new	24	11	0.46	YYYnnnnYnn	0.4	yes
Woke	woke	18	3	0.17	nnnnnnYnnY	0.37	no
Health / Healthy	health|healthy	1	0	0	n	0.35	no
Rare Earth	rare earth	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.31	no
Pharmaceutical	pharmaceutical	6	2	0.33	nYYnnn	0.3	yes