Will Donald Trump say “New York / Mayor”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “New York / Mayor” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
New York / Mayor
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to me. He said, "Sir, I want to thank you very much. New York's finest, a great guy, big strong guy." He said, "Sir, I…
…things and set things up, crooked attorney generals like we have in New York, like we have in Minnesota, like we have -- I can…
…that we will ever, ever, ever surrender. It was right here in New York City that George Washington ordered the Declaration of Independence read to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | New York / Mayor |  Kalshi | No |
| Nov 22, 2025 | New York / Mayor | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 11, 2025 | New York / Mayor | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 8, 2025 | New York / Mayor | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “New York / Mayor”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “New York / Mayor” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 8, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “New York / Mayor” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘New York / Mayor’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mayor-or-new-york (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mayor%20%2F%20new%20york · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP