Will “Illegal / Illegals” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Illegal / Illegals” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 19, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Illegal / Illegals
- Probability
- 49% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…she realizes this administration is serious about getting to the bottom of illegal aliens voting and being on our voter rolls in our country. The…
Counts: role: press secretary
6 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…confirmed that, for the 14th straight month, this administration has released zero illegal aliens into the United States. Again, let me reiterate the 14th straight…
The administration continues working to reverse the previous influx of millions of illegal aliens into our country by the Biden administration. And our law enforcement…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Illegal / Illegals |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Illegal / Illegals | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Illegal / Illegals | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| May 19, 2026 | Illegal / Illegals | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Illegal / Illegals” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Illegal / Illegals” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 19, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability “Illegal / Illegals” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Illegal / Illegals’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/illegal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=illegal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP