Will “Hormuz / Strait” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz / Strait” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Hormuz / Strait
- Probability
- 34% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
6 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 6 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…signed, they were not to fire on commercial vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And unfortunately, they have made the tragic decision for them…
…to them. But again, the President is not going to allow them to fire on ships in the strait without paying a consequence for that.
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon. And the Strait of Hormuz, back to your question on energy, has to free transit.…
…I think the president wanted to punctuate freedom of navigation in the strait. I had a call with the Omani ambassador this morning, and he…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| May 19, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Hormuz / Strait” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz / Strait” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hormuz / Strait” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Hormuz / Strait’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/hormuz-or-strait (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=hormuz%20%2F%20strait · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP