Will “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation
- Probability
- 34% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…They've got to stop. It's that simple. And to your point about negotiations, the president's been very clear, we're not talking to them and we're…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…on Iran for nearly every day this week. Do you and does the White House describe negotiations more at a standstill or essentially completely over?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…into. There are going to be any number of opinions about the negotiation, about where it's ultimately going to go. But I tend to think…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…The Council of Economic Advisers estimated that the benefit of the President's negotiated program is about $600 billion over the next 10 years -- $600…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…US has committed to discussing the matter of sanctions relief during this negotiation period. So, just to be clear, is sanctions relief for Iran on…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/negotiate-or-negotiated-or-negotiation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=negotiate%20%2F%20negotiated%20%2F%20negotiation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP