White House press briefing transcript, Jul 16, 2026
At the White House press briefing on Jul 16, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said 26 of the 50 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 49 of 50 settlements. Full transcript below (The White House on YouTube, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
50 words · 26 settled yes · our count agreed on 49 of 50- Kalshi: role: press secretary
Kalshi - Polymarket: role: press secretary
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President 50+ times | Yes | 86 | 117 | ✓ | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President 20+ times | Yes | 86 | 117 | ✓ | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President 30+ times | Yes | 86 | 117 | ✓ | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Administration 10+ times | Yes | 14 | 19 | ✓ | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CDC / WHO | Yes | 14 | 30 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 13 | 27 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 13 | 27 | ✓ | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 5+ times | Yes | 11 | 12 | ✓ | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 8 | 26 | ✓ | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal / Illegals | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 42%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Strait | Yes | 6 | 10 | ✓ | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Thing 10+ times | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✗ | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 46%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 4 | 7 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 53%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Baby | Yes | 3 | 8 | ✓ | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Kalshi | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 3 | 7 | ✓ | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Xi / Jinping | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Commander in Chief | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Madness | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=36 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
153 passages · part 2 of 2Speaker-labelled captions · The White House (YouTube), public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
“Nuclear / Ballistic” appears in parts none.
Questions and answers
This is true.
Why do you think the mainstream media is so fearful of tonight's speech and anything to do with election interference? And why are they attempting to discredit President Trump's speech before they've even heard it? And lastly, what's your message to AOC who is asking for President Trump -- the mainstream media to actually censor the sitting president's speech tonight?
Yeah. I think that the mainstream media should air the President's speech and allow the American people to draw their own conclusions from it. Again, I think it's important that the American public hears directly from the President of the United States on a topic that, to your point, is very near and dear to the hearts of many Americans across the country, the integrity of our elections. This should be a nonpartisan, non-controversial issue. And I think you'll hear the President talk about that tonight, so we'll see you then. Thank you.
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