White House press briefing transcript, Jan 20, 2026 (Trump)
At the White House press briefing on Jan 20, 2026, 13 of the 29 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 29 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
29 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 29 of 29backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 9 | 11 | ✓ | 63%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 61%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 56%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 57%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 58%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 0 | 25 | ✓ | 72%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 0 | 25 | ✓ | 66%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 0 | 13 | ✓ | 43%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 0 | 14 | ✓ | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 0 | 8 | ✓ | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 38 | ✓ | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Davos | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age / Golden Dome | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 17%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
513 passages · part 3 of 4Official transcript · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara (presidency.ucsb.edu); White House transcript, public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Thank you so much, Mr. President. I have two questions for you. One, do you want your Board of Peace to replace the U.N.?
Well, it might. I mean, the U.N. just hasn't been very helpful. I'm a big fan of the U.N. potential, but it has never lived up to its potential. The U.N. should have settled every one of the wars that I settled.
I never went to them. I never even thought to go to them. They should be able to settle those wars. They don't. I believe you've got to let the U.N. continue because the potential is so great.
Brazil/U.S. Trade Policy
And another one, Mr. President. You invited Lula from Brazil to be part of the Board of Peace.
I did.
What role do you——
I did.
——expect him to play, especially——
A big role. I like him.
——related to Venezuela?
Yes. I like him.
And another one, because the U—the EU——
Are you from Brazil?
Yes. The EU and Mercosur just signed a trade agreement this weekend, which is going to be the biggest trade zone—free zone in the world.
Right.
At the moment, you are talk a lot about tariffs. What is your reaction to that? So, two questions: Lula and then——
Well, I—look, I just think this. I think we have trade like we've never had before. We're doing better in trade than we ever have before. We're not being ripped off by every country in the world like we were before. We're doing numbers that nobody's ever thought possible. We're the richest we ever were. It's because of tariffs and the proper use of tariffs, and we're also the most secure.
As an example, Iceland—without tariffs, they wouldn't even be talking to us about it. So we'll see what happens. I think it's going to work out quite well.
Yes. Right behind.
President Emmanuel Macron of France/Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom
Thank you, Mr. President. How would you characterize your relationship with Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer right now? And have you spoken to them since your Truth Social post last night?
No, I haven't, but I think I get along very well with them. I mean, they always treat me well. They get a little bit rough when they're—you know, when I'm not around, but when I'm around, they treat me very nicely.
And you know, I like both of them. They're both liberal. They've got to straighten out their countries. You can't—you know, London is having a lot of problems. And if you look at Paris, got a lot of problems.
They have two problems: immigration and energy. They've got to stop with the windmills, and they got to go back—like, U.K. has an unbelievable asset called the North Sea. Norway uses it, makes a fortune. They have a better section of it, and they don't do it. They could straighten out their countries, and it would be good. But I get along very well with them.
Yes, go ahead.
Nobel Prize for Peace/Norway/Russia/Ukraine
Mr. President, you told Norway's Prime Minister that——
Are you from Norway?
No. [Laughter] You told——
You look like you would be from Norway. She looks like she's from Norway. [Laughter]
Go ahead.
You told Norway's Prime Minister that you not winning the Nobel Peace Prize made you feel less obligated to think purely of peace. Why would not——
Well, I lost a lot of respect for Norway, and I believe——
But why would not winning that prize affect——
And I believe very strongly that Norway controls the Nobel Prize. But you have to understand, I settled eight wars. I've had every one of those wars—every participant wrote—I didn't ask them to do it. They sent in strong recommendations—you know, they make recommendations for that. But I settled eight wars. No President has probably ever settled one war. I don't know if—think of it: I did eight.
The reason I do it is because it's easy for me to do. And I didn't do it for a Nobel Prize. I did it because I'm saving a lot of lives. I'm trying to settle the final one. I'm trying to do Russia-Ukraine. And when Russia's ready, Ukraine's not. When Ukraine's ready, Russia's not. But they're losing 25,000 people a month, on average. And I'm trying to get that one done. But no, I feel——
But I feel that Norway has tremendous control over who gets the Nobel Prize, despite what they say.
Greenland
Mr. President, how far are you willing to go to acquire Greenland?
Thank you, Mr. President. Kevin Hassett has said that those $2,000 tariff rebate checks would be up to Congress to decide whether or not to disperse that. Do you agree with Kevin Hassett on that——
I don't know.
——or do you think you can do that unilaterally?
No, I don't know. I don't think we would have to go the Congress route, but you know, we'll find out.
The reason we're even talking about it is that we have so much money coming in from tariffs that we'll be able to issue at least a $2,000 dividend and also pay down debt for the country. But we'd do a $2,000 dividend to the people of our country. We'd probably set a limit of—you know, income limit where it made sense. But we will be able to make a very substantial dividend to the people of our country. I believe we can do that without Congress.
Diego Garcia Island
Sir, last night, on Truth Social you said that the British plan to hand the base at Diego Garcia over to Mauritius and then rent it back was "an act of great stupidity." Previously, you've backed that bill. Is it now your position——
Well——
——that the deal should not go ahead?
——I think that they—you know, when they originally were going to do it, they were talking about doing some concept of ownership. But now they're looking to essentially just do a lease and sell it, and I'm against that.
You know, it's a reasonably—nothing like Greenland, but it's a reasonably important area of the globe. Not to—anywhere near Greenland, but I think they should keep it. I don't know why they're doing it. Do they need money?
Syria
Thank you, Mr. President. With your support to the Syrian Government, most probably you avoided another civil war and a bloodshed in Syria, especially after the fall of the regime.
I did a good job. I did a good job.
And the Syrian Government, the last 2 weeks, had to use some force to implement its force on specific areas. And with your——
Well, to keep the prisoners, the terrorist prisoners, which is some of the worst in the world, at bay. So they were able to keep that.
He's working very hard. The President of Syria. He's working very, very hard. Strong guy, tough guy. A pretty rough résumé. But you're not going to put a choirboy in there and, you know, get the job done.
I spoke with him yesterday, because we were talking about the prisons and, you know, what was going. We have some of the worst terrorists in the world in those prisons, and he's watching them.
Go ahead.
Governor Gavin C. Newsom of California
Mr. President—Mr. President, Gavin Newsom is going to be at Davos, if he's not already there. You're probably going to run into him. I presume that this is for him to raise his platform for 2028, but what do you anticipate his foreign policy platform is going to be if he's there talking?
I don't know. I mean, I don't know that he's going to be the nominee. I—I know this: I had a very good relationship with Gavin Newsom when we were, you know, in office together. I was President. He was the Governor of California. We had a really—he would talk about it often. And somewhere we just went astray.
I just hate the way California is being run. We actually have people leaving. It's never happened before, but I hate the way it's being run.
He and I had a very good relationship that really—close to the word "exceptional," but now we seem not to.
No, no.
Thank you.
Above.
Thank you so much, President Trump. Cara Castronuova from LindellTV.
And you spoke earlier about the 2020 election. Now that Maduro is in U.S. custody and he was criminally charged, has any more information emerged that you could share with us regarding Venezuelan election software and Venezuelan ties to tampering with the 2020 election? And would you consider speaking to Maduro personally in prison, in New York, to get some answers on Venezuela's involvement with the 2020 election?
No, I don't think I would be doing that. I think my lawyers would be very unhappy if I did that, but——
Yes, they've learned. They've learned some things. Please.
U.S. Tariff Policy
What happens to the tariff threat to Greenland if the Supreme Court comes out and rules against you on the tariffs? And are you—
Well, I'll have to use something else. I mean, look——
Are you willing to use force?
You know, take a look at the word "license." Take a look at other things. I mean, we have other alternatives. But the—what we're doing now is the best, the strongest, the fastest, the easiest, the least complicated.
Greenland
Sir, if you move ahead with the Greenland-related tariffs on Europe—you secured almost a trillion dollars of commitments from them to invest in the United States—does that go kaput, out the window, if that happens?
I doubt it. Look, they want to—they need that agreement very badly with us. They really do. They fought very hard to get it. So I doubt that, but we'll see what happens.
We have a lot of meetings scheduled on Greenland. I'm leaving tonight, as you know—Davos. And we have a lot of meetings scheduled on Greenland, and I think things are going to work out pretty well, actually.
Group of Seven (G–7) Nations
Thank you, Mr. President. Will you still go to Paris for the G–7 emergency meeting, as offered by President Macron?
No. I wouldn't do that, no.
Because, you know, Emmanuel is not going to be there very long, and, you know, there's no longevity there. I—he's a friend of mine. He's a nice guy. I like Macron. But—but he's not—he's not going to be there very much longer, as you know. And I think—you know, I have meetings with the people that are directly involved, not some of the people you're talking about.
Thank you so much, Mr. President. And happy one year.
I've never seen this room like this. [Laughter] Is this a celebration of the first year?
Yes!
Yes!
Have you ever seen it? I've never seen this many.
It's packed.
I hope we have a very good——
Congratulations.
I hope we have a very good structural floor. You know, this used to be a swimming pool. You're sitting over a swimming pool. I could see that happening.
But this—we need a good structure here, don't we, huh?
Yes.
Thank you so much, Mr. President. Happy 1-year anniversary.
And my question is Syria—on Syria. The Kurds is the most loyal U.S. partners facing attacks by some Syrian elements within the Syrian Government. What will you do to ensure the Kurdish rights protected under effective forces against terrorism in Rojava, Syria, continue, as the Kurdish see you as a President does not abandon his allies?
Well, I like the Kurds, but just so you understand, the Kurds were paid tremendous amounts of money, were given oil and other things. So they were doing it for themselves more so than they were doing it for us.
But we get along with the Kurds, and we are trying to protect the Kurds. That's correct.
National Economy
Ahead of your speech in Davos, can you give us a preview of what we can expect as far as, you know, laying out the plans for Americans to be able to buy homes?
I think, more than anything else, what I'm going to be speaking about is the tremendous success that we've had in 1 year. I didn't think we could do it this fast. Think of it. It's just now 12 months.
And you know, I say it often: We have the most successful country in the world. We have the hottest country anywhere in the world, by far. And this country would have been absolutely stone-cold dead.
And I'm going to be talking about it. I'm going to be—because, you know, a lot of them could use some of the advice as to what we did. They need energy. They—you take a look at their energy policy. They're going to destroy themselves with what they're doing with the windmills and all the nonsense. They need energy help badly or they're going to be in big trouble. And they need immigration help badly.
How much longer do you want to go?
You have a call with——
I do. I do.
I have a very—I have a very important call with President Erdoğan, who I like——
——who I like a lot.
All right. One or—one or two more questions.
Go ahead.
Go ahead, please. Go ahead.
Red. Red.
Thank you, Mr. President. I appreciate you taking the time to take my question——
Yes.
The red blouse, go ahead.
National Economy/Consumer Prices/Venezuela/Oil Supply and Refining
You talked a lot at the beginning of this about the economy, some positive economic indicators. Polling shows the majority of Americans don't feel the economy is doing well. Are you worried you're making the same mistake as President Biden——
No.
——by telling them that they should——
I hope I don't make the same mistake as him. Look, I inherited a terrible—I mean, I'm—it's a great question, because we inherited a terrible, terrible mess. Between the border, between all the problems, the whole country was falling apart. And in 12 months—less than 12 months—I mean, in 12 months, we have the strongest border we've ever had. We have prices that are much, much lower than they were for the last time—we inherited very high prices. We inherited—remember this: Inflation was at a historic high. We had never had inflation like that. They say 48 years, but whether it's 48 years or ever, we had the highest inflation, in my opinion, that we've ever had. Prices, because of that, were very high.
I inherited—we brought down eggs immediately. Remember, the first news conference, they were screaming at me about eggs. I was in the position for two days, and they're screaming—we brought eggs down to lower than what they were before. And, by the way, they continue that way.
We brought the prices down from when I came into office—and from what Biden had—way down. We're going to bring them down further. But the job we did is a miracle. One of the reasons I'm doing this today is to explain. We inherited a mess, and we've made it a beautiful, beautiful picture.
Think of gasoline at $1.99 in many States—$1.99 a gallon. It was $4.50, $5—in some cases, $6 or $7. We're at $1.99. And energy is so big that, with energy, everything else comes down. But the prices are coming way down, and they're going—we're going to bring them down further.
But we started up here with these guys. We inherited a country that was broken. We inherited a country—and I—I have a very warm spot. We've done very well with Venezuela. And by the way, that, even in itself, is going to help us bring down the oil prices.
I mean, the Venezuelan oil—we've taken 50 billion—50 million gallons of oil. We've taken 50 million barrels of oil out of Venezuela in the first 4 days. We've got millions of barrels of oil left. We're selling it on the open market. We're bringing down oil prices incredibly.
And when they come down—and they've already come down. Again, $1.99 a gallon for oil. Nobody thought they'd ever see it.
All right. One or two more.
Go ahead. Go, go, go. Yes.
Thank you, Mr. President.
I want to ask you about Iran. Is the military option still on the table? And can you assure us that the killing in Iran has stopped? And I'm wondering: In regard to your peace council, which members have to pay $1 billion?——
So, with Iran, are you from Iran?
No. I cover the White House.
Where are you from?
I'm Palestinian American.
So, with Iran, they were going to hang 837 people, and I let it be known that—and we let them know that if that happens, that will be a very bad day for them. And they decided not to do it. They didn't hang the people.
I can't tell you what's going to happen in the future, but supposedly, they've taken that off the table. But they were going to—last week, they were going to hang, on Thursday or Wednesday, one—they were going to hang—hang, I think, 837 people, and they didn't hang anybody. So, we're just going to have to see what happens with Iran.
Is the military option off the table? [Inaudible]
Go ahead.
Go ahead. Please.
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