Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 22, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Oval Office interview?
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Yes | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | Yes | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Barron | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Capital Gains | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hegseth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stargate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reserve | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 15%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Strategic Reserve | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP