Donald Trump: Episode, Apr 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say on Tonight's CUOMO Town Hall: The First 100 Days?
Polymarket What will Trump say during his Cabinet Meeting on April 30?
Markets
31 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Make a Deal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 7+ times | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Bill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Judge | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 63%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| CNN | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jalen / Hurts | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saquon / Barkley | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shedeur / Sanders | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Xi / Jinping | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Friend of Mine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tijuana | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gold Card | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Mark / Carney | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold Card / Trump Card | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE | No | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=83 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25APR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP