Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 21, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 77%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 67%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Missile defense shield | Yes | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala 25+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Women's sports | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| French fries | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teleprompter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FEMA | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 7%n=28 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP