Donald Trump: Rally, Sep 7, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampon | Yes | 70%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border Czar | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 65%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Marxist | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fired 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Guatemala | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien 5+ times | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mosquito | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP