Donald Trump: Rally, Sep 12, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Markets
16 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abortion | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Springfield | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dog | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rig/Rigged | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 72%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abdul | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fact Check | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moderator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Veto | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP