Donald Trump: Rally, Sep 18, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during New York rally?
Markets
19 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News 3+ times | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rig/Rigged | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hispanic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 65%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Golf | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Black Jobs | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deep State | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Underdog | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pager | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 20%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-new-york-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP