JD Vance: Episode, Mar 14, 2025
Kalshi What will J.D. Vance say on Ingraham Angle tonight?
Markets
22 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chuck / Schumer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Export | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hegseth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Import | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lebanon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Linda / McMahon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meme | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| St. Patrick's / St. Paddy's | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Couch | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEINGRAHAM-25MAR14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP