Will “Billion” be said on MrBeast next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Billion” was said on MrBeast at 5 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (29%), most recently on May 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
MrBeast
Billion
- Probability
- 32% · n=17
- Settled
- 5/17 (29%)
- Last 6 episodes
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Billion |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| May 30, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 9, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Billion | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Billion | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Billion” said on MrBeast?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Billion” was said on MrBeast at 5 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (29%), most recently on May 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Billion” is said on MrBeast next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “MrBeast: ‘Billion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/mrbeast/words/billion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mrbeast&word=billion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mrbeast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP