MrBeast: Episode, Apr 19, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
17 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Challenge | Yes | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million | No | 82%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Twitch | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Speed | No | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 44%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Mario / Galaxy | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pokemon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Survivor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | 37%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Charity | No | 13%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26APR19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP