MrBeast: Episode, Apr 4, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million | Yes | 80%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | Yes | 72%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Win | Yes | 71%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Speed | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Twitch | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscribe | Yes | 44%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | Yes | 39%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Mario / Galaxy | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | Yes | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Money | No | 59%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | No | 54%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | No | 49%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 49%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charity | No | 14%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26APR04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP