MrBeast: Episode, Mar 7, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
27 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Yes | 91%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Win | Yes | 74%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | Yes | 69%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subscribe | Yes | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million | No | 84%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Car | No | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 54%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Supercar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MrBeast | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Feastable | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Briefcase | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donated / Raised | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impossible | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| My Wife | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insane | No | 32%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Jet | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dollar 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Island | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP