MrBeast: Episode, Jul 11, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
32 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million | Yes | 74%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 5+ times | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | Yes | 23%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | No | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribed | No | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Eliminate / Eliminated | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | No | 46%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Dangerous Games | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar 10+ times | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | No | 41%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 38%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Beast Games | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | No | 35%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Darius | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Lamborghini | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Subscriber | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Red Line | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | 22%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored / Sponsoring | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sport | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Survivor | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Calendar | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Technology | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pokemon | No | 14%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Karl | No | 12%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26JUL11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP