MrBeast: Episode, Dec 4, 2025
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during the NYT DealBook Summit?
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon / Tesla | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invest / Investment / Investor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Challenge | No | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karl / Chandler / Nolan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscriber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walmart | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charity | No | 17%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-25DEC04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP