MrBeast: Episode, Dec 21, 2025
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next MrBeast Youtube Video?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Yes | 85%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 76%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Win | Yes | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Car | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Insane | No | 28%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26JAN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP