MrBeast: Episode, Apr 18, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube Video?
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
37 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million | Yes | 82%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | Yes | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Speed | Yes | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Dollar 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Insane | Yes | 32%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | Yes | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Twitch | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beast | No | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 45%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Chocolate | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / Lamborghini | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mario / Galaxy | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pokemon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Survivor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | 37%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Africa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Calendar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Huge amount | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impressive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Influencer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Movie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| School | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sport | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Super Mario Galaxy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Technology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank You | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| This Year | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donate / Donated | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charity | No | 13%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26APR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP