MrBeast: Episode, Feb 21, 2026
Kalshi Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Yes | 90%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 83%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Car | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | Yes | 41%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Win | No | 80%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | No | 73%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Money | No | 64%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | No | 52%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe | No | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | No | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 34%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 22%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26MAR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP