MrBeast: Episode, Mar 21, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
22 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Yes | 91%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 79%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | Yes | 70%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Win | No | 76%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Money | No | 62%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Car | No | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Mario / Galaxy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscribe | No | 47%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | No | 42%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Artem / Kaptur | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hottest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Movie / Film | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Super Bowl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billion | No | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 17%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26MAR21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP