MrBeast: Episode, Aug 8, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
26 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million | Yes | 75%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Dollar 5+ times | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Time 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beast | Yes | 38%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | 38%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | Yes | 37%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Sleep / Sleeping | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Red Line | Yes | 22%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribed | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Disney | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chandler | No | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Dangerous Games | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Beast Games | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 28%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored / Sponsoring | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery Store | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Market / Supermarket | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | 20%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Wedding / Married | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Wife | No | 14%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pokemon | No | 13%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Karl | No | 6%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26AUG08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP