Will JD Vance say “Iraq”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iraq” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Iraq
- Probability
- 56% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you. First, the widow of an airman who was killed in the Iraq war says she's having trouble getting some of the benefits that they…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…deal. Can you say whether the drawdown will affect US forces past Iraq and Syria where American troops currently help protect Kurdish held areas from…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Iraq”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iraq” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Iraq” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Iraq’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/iraq (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=iraq · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP