Will JD Vance say “Department of War”?

As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Department of War” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

31%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=department%20of%20war

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Department of War

Probability
31% · n=3
Settled
0/3 (0%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 18:31In transcript

…is that we needed to have a culture shift at the Department of War. We have to ask ourselves the very difficult questions, and it…

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 28, 2026Department of WarKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025Department of WarKalshiNo
Oct 19, 2025Department of WarKalshiNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Department of War”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Department of War” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2025.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Department of War” next time?
31%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Department of War’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/department-of-war (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=department%20of%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP