Will JD Vance say “Drone”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Drone” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

37%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Drone

Probability
37% · n=3
Settled
1/3 (33%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 6:56In transcript

…doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or drones at Israel. The Iranians don't give up the right of self-defense in…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 38:26In transcript

…question before, and we certainly love the people of Kurdistan. Anytime that drone attacks or missile attacks are hitting anybody, but particularly civilian populations, that's…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jul 1, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026DroneKalshiYes2
May 28, 2026DroneKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Drone”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Drone” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Drone” next time?
37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Drone’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/drone (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=drone · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP