Will JD Vance say “Commitment”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Commitment” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 28, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Commitment
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we love you, we're grateful for the sacrifice and we very much take very seriously our commitment to get you what you need to get.
So, so far, they are honoring their end of the commitment. And on the blockade, CENTCOM has allowed north of a dozen ships to go…
…cannot have a nuclear weapon. We want to see not just the commitment to not have a nuclear weapon, but the commitment to work with…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Commitment |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Commitment”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Commitment” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Commitment” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Commitment’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/commitment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=commitment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP