Will JD Vance say “Recruit / Recruitment”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Recruit / Recruitment” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Recruit / Recruitment
- Probability
- 56% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…think you see evidence of that happening in a lot of different ways. Two important ways is, number one, we have recruitment at all-time highs.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Recruit / Recruitment |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Recruit / Recruitment |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Recruit / Recruitment”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Recruit / Recruitment” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Recruit / Recruitment” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Recruit / Recruitment’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/recruit-or-recruitment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=recruit%20%2F%20recruitment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP