# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-05-18 · 26 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY18 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-18 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY18 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks at Milbank Manufacturing Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	35	27	0.77	nnnYYYYYYY	2	2	0.66	yes
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	10	8	0.8	YYnYnYYYYY	2	1	0.65	yes
Democrat	democrat	24	18	0.75	nYnnYnYYYY	2	2	0.63	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	19	14	0.74	YYnYYYYYnY	2	2	0.61	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	13	9	0.69	YnnYnYYnYY	2	1	0.58	yes
American Dream	american dream	21	15	0.71	YYYnYYYnnn	2	0	0.57	yes
Fraud	fraud	19	12	0.63	nYnnYYYYnY	2	1	0.56	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	17	9	0.53	nYYnYnYYYY	2	1	0.54	yes
Election	election	13	7	0.54	YYnYnYnYnY	2	0	0.47	no
Campaign	campaign	4	2	0.5	YYnn	2	0	0.45	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	4	2	0.5	YYnn	2	0	0.45	yes
Usha	usha	8	4	0.5	nnYYYYnn	2	0	0.43	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	15	8	0.53	nnYYnYnYnn	2	0	0.42	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	17	7	0.41	nYnYYnnnnY	2	1	0.35	no
Tariff	tariff	24	8	0.33	nnnYnYnYnn	2	0	0.34	no
SAVE Act / SAVE America	save act|save america	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	2	0	0.32	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	2	0	0.32	no
Uranium	uranium	4	1	0.25	nYnn	2	0	0.27	no
Transgender	transgender	4	0	0	nnnn	2	0	0.24	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	9	1	0.11	nnnnYnnnn	2	0	0.22	no
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	3	0	0	nnn	2	0	0.2	no
America First	america first	20	3	0.15	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	15	2	0.13	nYnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	15	3	0.2	nnnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.18	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	2	0	0.15	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	25	3	0.12	nnYnnnnnnn	2	1	0.12	no