Will JD Vance say “Lunatic / Crazy”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Lunatic / Crazy” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Lunatic / Crazy
- Probability
- 59% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we're going to do what we have to do in…
…we'll give him (inaudible). Sorry, I can't get to everybody. Marco's right, this really is chaos. This is crazy. You guys got to behave yourself.
You're trying to actually marshal the far-left lunatic fringe to engage in doxing to try to make it impossible for them to enforce the law…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lunatic / Crazy |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2025 | Crazy / Lunatic | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Lunatic / Crazy”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Lunatic / Crazy” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Lunatic / Crazy” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Lunatic / Crazy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/crazy-or-lunatic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=crazy%20%2F%20lunatic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP