# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-04-29 · 33 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR29B · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-on-the-will-cain-show · as_of 2026-10-24T18:24:56Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-29 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR29B ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: The Will Cain Show , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-on-the-will-cain-show (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during this appearance.
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Usha	usha	K	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	2	0	0.61	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	K	19	14	0.74	YYYYYnYnnY	2	2	0.59	hist	no
Biden	biden	K	29	21	0.72	nYYnYYnnnY	2	2	0.59	hist	yes
God	god	P	2	2	1	YY	2	2	0.55	hist	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	KP	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.55	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	KP	12	6	0.5	YnnYnnYnYY	2	1	0.55	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	KP	7	4	0.57	nnnYYYY	2	1	0.54	hist	no
Election	election	K	9	5	0.56	YnnYYnYnY	2	0	0.52	hist	no
Orbán / Hungary	hungary|orban	P	0	0			2	0	0.52	hist	no
Deal	deal	P	0	0			2	0	0.51	hist	yes
California	california	P	6	4	0.67	YYYYnn	2	1	0.5	hist	no
Fraud / Scam	fraud|scam	P	0	0			2	1	0.49	hist	yes
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	KP	3	2	0.67	YYn	2	0	0.47	hist	yes
Iran	iran	P	9	4	0.44	YnnYnYnnY	2	0	0.44	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	KP	14	8	0.57	YYnnYnYnnY	2	1	0.43	hist	yes
Midterm	midterm	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	0	0.43	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	K	0	0			2	1	0.4	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	K	12	5	0.42	nYnnnnYYnY	2	1	0.39	hist	no
King	king	P	0	0			2	0	0.37	hist	no
King / Queen	king|queen	P	0	0			2	0	0.37	hist	no
Political Violence	political violence	K	6	2	0.33	YnYnnn	2	1	0.36	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	K	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.35	hist	no
National Security	national security	P	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	2	0	0.34	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	K	1	0	0	n	2	2	0.34	hist	no
NATO	nato	P	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.3	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	K	10	2	0.2	nnnYnnYnnn	2	0	0.27	hist	no
America First	america first	K	16	3	0.19	Ynnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.22	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	K	20	3	0.15	nnnnnnnYnn	2	1	0.21	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	P	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	P	20	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.14	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	P	0	0			2	0	0.42	prior	yes
Rhetoric	rhetoric	P	0	0			2	2	0.42	prior	yes
Social Security	social security	P	0	0			2	0	0.42	prior	no