Will JD Vance say “Midterm”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Midterm” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

31%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=midterm

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Midterm

Probability
31% · n=4
Settled
1/4 (25%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 2:19In transcript

…just an administration that was trying to juice gas prices for the midterms. And what that meant is for Americans, our Strategic Petroleum Reserve under…

The PressreporterVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 41:49In transcript

That's right. Okay. Thank you, Mr. Vice President. Midterms are well underway. You've got voters going to the polls in six states today. You and…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 20, 2026MidtermKalshiNo
Apr 29, 2026MidtermPolymarketNo
Feb 17, 2026MidtermPolymarketNo
Nov 14, 2025MidtermKalshiYes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Midterm”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Midterm” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 14, 2025.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Midterm” next time?
31%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Midterm’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/midterm (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=midterm · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP