# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-05-17 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY18 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:40:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-17 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY18 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after May 11th at 1:00am ET and before May 18, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
50,000	50 000	12	11	0.92	YnYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.82	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	78	58	0.74	nYYYYnYnYn	1	1	0.82	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	73	48	0.66	nYnnnYnYnY	1	0	0.79	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	53	34	0.64	YnYnYYnYYn	1	0	0.78	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	56	35	0.62	YnYYYnYYYn	1	0	0.75	0	0	no	1
Transgender	transgender	119	66	0.55	nYYnYnnnnY	1	1	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	42	28	0.67	YYYnYnYYnn	1	0	0.73	0	0	no	1
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.7	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	227	119	0.52	YYYnnYnnnn	1	1	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	29	21	0.72	YYYnnnYYYY	1	1	0.68	0	0	no	1
Landslide	landslide	10	8	0.8	YYYnYYYnYY	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	34	23	0.68	YYYYnnYnYY	1	0	0.67	0	0	no	1
Warsh	warsh	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.64	0	0	no	1
Autism	autism	21	12	0.57	YYYYnYnnYY	1	0	0.63	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	70	44	0.63	YYYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	33	19	0.58	YYYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	31	10	0.32	YYnYYYYnnn	1	0	0.61	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	21	12	0.57	YnYnYYnYnn	1	1	0.56	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	39	19	0.49	nYnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.54	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	42	18	0.43	nnnYYnYnYY	1	1	0.53	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	111	28	0.25	nYYnYnnYnn	1	0	0.49	0	0	no	1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.46	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	9	4	0.44	nYnnnnYYY	1	0	0.45	0	0	no	1
Pope	pope	12	3	0.25	YnnnYnnnnY	1	0	0.45	0	0	no	1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	11	3	0.27	nYnnYnYnnn	1	1	0.44	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	368	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	0	0	no	1
Uranium	uranium	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.29	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	17	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.18	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	40	4	0.1	nnnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	31	4	0.13	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.13	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	24	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	0	0	no	1