# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-05-03 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:47:42Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-03 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after April 27th at 10:00am ET and before May 4, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-29 of 31 by p · more: offset=29 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	74	56	0.76	YYYYnYYYYn	1	1	0.83	hist	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	10	9	0.9	YYYnYYYYYY	1	0	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	70	46	0.66	YYnnYnnnYn	1	0	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	50	32	0.64	YYnYnYnYYn	1	0	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	107	60	0.56	nYYYnnnnnY	1	1	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	54	34	0.63	YYYnYYYnYY	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	39	27	0.69	nYYYYYnYnY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Landslide	landslide	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	32	21	0.66	YYYYYYnnYn	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	19	10	0.53	nYYYYYnYnn	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	27	19	0.7	YYYYYnnnYY	1	1	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	212	111	0.52	nnYnnnYnYY	1	1	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	35	19	0.54	YnnnnYnYnn	1	1	0.61	hist	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	66	42	0.64	YYYnYYYYYY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	19	12	0.63	YYYnYnYYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	27	9	0.33	YnnnYYnYYY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	31	17	0.55	YYYYYYYnnn	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	0	0			1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pope	pope	9	2	0.22	nnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Warsh	warsh	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	8	3	0.38	nnYnnYnY	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	40	16	0.4	YYnnnYYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	109	28	0.26	nnnYYnYnnY	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	7	2	0.29	nYnnnnY	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	353	38	0.11	nnYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Uranium	uranium	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	1	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	15	2	0.13	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.22	hist	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	29	4	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.14	hist	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	22	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.14	hist	0	0	no	1