# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-11-20 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV20 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:14:32Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-20 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of U.S. - Saudi Investment Forum, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	108	83	0.77	YYYYnnYYYn	0.69	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	41	29	0.71	YnnYnYYYYY	0.69	hist	yes
China	china	69	53	0.77	nYnnnnYnYY	0.68	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	26	19	0.73	nYYYnnYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	66	50	0.76	YYYnnnnYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Peace	peace	22	15	0.68	YnYYYnnYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Election	election	38	23	0.61	nYnnnnYnYY	0.59	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	63	39	0.62	YnYnnnYnYY	0.58	hist	yes
Economy	economy	14	9	0.64	nYYnYYYYYn	0.57	hist	yes
Border	border	67	38	0.57	nnnnnnnnYn	0.53	hist	yes
Abraham	abraham	8	5	0.62	YnYYnYnY	0.5	hist	yes
Investment	investment	37	19	0.51	nnYnnnnYYY	0.5	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	73	38	0.52	nnnnnnYYYY	0.48	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	17	8	0.47	nYYnnnYnYn	0.48	hist	yes
Nvidia	nvidia	9	4	0.44	nnYYnnYYn	0.48	hist	no
Gas	gas	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.47	hist	yes
Israel	israel	43	25	0.58	YYnnYYYYYn	0.47	hist	no
Hoax	hoax	11	5	0.45	nnYnnnYYYn	0.47	hist	no
Disaster	disaster	17	8	0.47	nnYYnYnYnn	0.44	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	10	3	0.3	nnYnYYnnnn	0.37	hist	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	26	11	0.42	nnnnYnYYnn	0.36	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	53	20	0.38	YnnnnnnYnn	0.34	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	25	10	0.4	nnnnnYnnnn	0.31	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	33	5	0.15	nnnnnnnYYn	0.28	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	189	18	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
Bone	bone	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Ronaldo	ronaldo	0	0			0.42	prior	no