Will Donald Trump say “Stimulus”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Stimulus” at any of the 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
43%from settlement history only · n=9Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 9 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 96¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stimulus
- Probability
- 43% · n=9
- Settled
- 0/9 (0%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Stimulus |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Stimulus | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stimulus”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Stimulus” at any of the 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 13, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stimulus” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stimulus’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stimulus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stimulus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP