# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-11-07 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07B · as_of 2026-10-24T03:53:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-07 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of C5+1 Summit on November 6th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p
China	china	54	45	0.83	YYYnYYYnYY	0.78
Biden	biden	92	72	0.78	YYYnnnnYYY	0.74
Tariff	tariff	53	42	0.79	YYnnYYYnYY	0.69
Trillion	trillion	11	8	0.73	nYYYYYnnYY	0.67
Nuclear	nuclear	53	34	0.64	nnnYYYnnnY	0.65
Election	election	27	18	0.67	YnnYYYnnnY	0.64
Border	border	56	35	0.62	YYYnnnYYnn	0.64
Energy	energy	27	19	0.7	nYYnnYYYYY	0.63
Hottest	hottest	52	30	0.58	YYYnnnnYnn	0.63
Investment	investment	22	11	0.5	nnYYYnnYYY	0.61
Stock Market	stock market	6	4	0.67	YYYnnY	0.6
Russia	russia	45	25	0.56	YYnnnnYnnY	0.57
New York	new york	9	4	0.44	YnYnnYnYn	0.56
Trade Deal	trade deal	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.54
Healthcare	healthcare	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.5
Putin	putin	56	33	0.59	nnnnYYnnnY	0.49
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	14	9	0.64	YnYnnYnYYn	0.47
Trump	trump	12	4	0.33	YnnYnnnnnn	0.46
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	37	15	0.41	YnnnnnnnnY	0.44
Supreme Court	supreme court	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	0.43
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	13	6	0.46	nYYnnnYYnY	0.42
Oil	oil	25	8	0.32	nnnYYYYnnn	0.36
Ceasefire	ceasefire	21	4	0.19	YnnnYnnnnn	0.31
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	166	15	0.09	nnnnnYYYnn	0.29
Nobel	nobel	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.19