Donald Trump: Speech, Jun 10, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his speech at Fort Bragg, NC?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Fort Bragg remarks?
Markets
40 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 74%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Duty | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Veteran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Freedom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Airborne | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commander-in-Chief | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liberty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newscum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Normandy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| LA / Los Angeles | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dome | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 64%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Space | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Braxton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Segregation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Special Forces | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon | No | 51%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Birthday | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Parade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 32%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 7%n=97 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP