Will Donald Trump say “Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day
- Probability
- 44% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/saint-patrick-day-or-saint-patricks-day (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=saint%20patrick%20day%20%2F%20saint%20patrick%27s%20day · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP