Will Donald Trump say “Ally / Alliance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Ally / Alliance” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ally / Alliance
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…making the big dollars. And what we have found is our biggest allies actually are people in those businesses who know that wrong is being…
…every type and ammunition of every type, and will be able to supply our allies at a much faster rate than we're doing right now.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2025 | Ally / Alliance |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Ally / Allies / Alliance | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ally / Alliance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Ally / Alliance” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ally / Alliance” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ally / Alliance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/alliance-or-ally (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=alliance%20%2F%20ally · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP