Will Donald Trump say “Deterrence”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deterrence” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jun 25, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deterrence
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2025 | Deterrence |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Deterrence | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Deterrence | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deterrence”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deterrence” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jun 25, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deterrence” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deterrence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deterrence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deterrence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP