Will Donald Trump say “Second Amendment”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Second Amendment” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 26, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Second Amendment
- Probability
- 65% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
defender of the Second Amendment, but now he wants to get rid of it. That's a that's a minor switch, wouldn't you say? I defend…
…I can't tell you how important which they'll use to open your borders and set loose criminals into your country and destroy your second amendment.
…Court because by doing that, they can terminate a thing called your Second Amendment. And uh she wants to do that. The Democrats want to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Second Amendment |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Second Amendment | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Second Amendment | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Second Amendment |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Second Amendment”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Second Amendment” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 26, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Second Amendment” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Second Amendment’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/second-amendment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=second%20amendment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP