Remarks transcript, Jun 22, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jun 22, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 28 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 27 of 28 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
28 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 27 of 28- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum | Yes | 12 | 38 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 64%n=161 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 8 | 13 | ✓ | 66%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 59%n=278 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 11 | ✓ | 66%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 52%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 44%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 33%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 3 | 4 | ✗ | 38%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 53%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=260 from settlement history | – |
| Rigetti | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=406 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
335 passages · part 3 of 3Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
You're meeting with NATO's Mark Rutte on Wednesday.
Good.
You've had Secretary Hegseth review U.S. presence in NATO countries.
I did. Yes.
Talk to us about that conversation. Are you planning on drawing down U.S. troops?
Well, look, NATO—it's NATO, basically—the question. So we have been a great member of NATO. The—in many ways, certainly the predominant member. We paid trillions of dollars over the years—not billions—trillions over the years to protect Europe. When we wanted to know—I didn't need—we didn't need any help at all. I was more curious than anything else. So I said to Pete, "Let's see if they'd actually come." So we asked them to come, and they weren't there for us. So we spent—it's stupid that they weren't.
By the way, Starmer wasn't there. And you know what? The people of the U.K. did not like it that he wasn't there. Starmer said no. Starmer said worse than no. He said, "We'll be there as soon as you win." I said, "We don't need you as soon as we win."
Before I went in, we called him. He said: "Oh, wow. We'll be there"—this was not Winston Churchill we're dealing with. That, I can tell you. [ Laughter ] But Starmer said, "We'll be there"—right, Pete?—as soon as we win. As soon as we win, they're going to come and help us. Okay?
But you know what? Italy was very bad. Italy was very bad. And other countries—Germany was very bad.
So we spent all of this money, probably 600—I think we spent $600 million a year, right? I would say that. I think the real number—think of that. The numbers that we spend are so crazy—on NATO. And they weren't there for us.
So I say to Pete and I say to everybody else, if we're spending all of this money, hundreds—just hundreds of millions of dollars to protect them from Russia, mostly—okay, so we're spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year. You know, the case could be made that we spent all of the money over the years before me. I cut it back.
But listen, we spend all of this money, and then when we want to maybe have help on a—on small stuff—this is small time; this is not the big one; this is small potatoes—they say, "No, we'd rather not help."
A stupid thing to say, because we can say that to them if we want. And we might. I don't know.
Mr. President, it's the 1-year anniversary of—it's the 1-year anniversary of Operation Midnight Hammer. If you could go back in time, is there anything you would do differently?
No.
Nothing at all?
It was the most successful attack that anyone has ever seen with a bomber. That totally wiped out their nuclear potential. If we didn't do that, you'd have no Israel right now. Israel would not exist, and most of the Middle East would not exist.
They were 2 weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. If we wouldn't have done that, Pete, they would've had a nuclear weapon.
You want to say something about that?
Yes, sir. I didn't—I wasn't aware it was 1 year. But you don't have the situation we have now, a position of strength where Iran is going to give up their nuclear program, without Midnight Hammer, which no other country on planet Earth could remotely, conceivably pull off that from start to finish, 37 hours back and forth. Iran never saw it, and every munition—precision munition that only we make hit exactly where we wanted it to, because——
And they knew we were coming, and they could do nothing about it.
And they could do nothing about it with their air defenses, which are even further now degraded.
And that's what everyone misses in the press, and the president is right to call it fake news because the overwhelming military victory that has been had over Iran is what has set the conditions for them to be at the table with our negotiators.
And we will ensure, whether it's through a deal or through the War Department, that they never get a nuclear weapon because of this President right here.
Okay. Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
Thank you, press.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, guys. Thank you, guys.
Thank you.
Sir, do you want to—do you want to sign these orders?
See, Biden can't do that. [ Laughter ] See that, Arvind? Nice signature. Biden can't do that.
Oh, look, I'm on camera. [ Laughter ] I didn't know. Biden can't do that. He used an autopen. I say, "No, thanks."
It's postquantum cryptography, sir.
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