Donald Trump: Posts window, Aug 22, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say on Truth Social during DNC final night?
Coverage
0 known appearancesevery post in the window Window: Aug 16, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border 3+ times | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crazy | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Laugh/Laughing | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Communist | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unrealized gains | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Black | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin/BTC | No | – | 0 | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto | No | – | 0 | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP