Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Last Word in 15 of 32 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (47%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=32, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.

40%from settlement history only · n=32counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Iran / Iranian

Probability
40% · n=32
Settled
15/32 (47%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.

Josh Turekguest42:50In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Josh Turekguest45:02In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted; 10 by speakers the rule does not count.

Josh Turekguest27:52In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Josh Turekguest29:29In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 5 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

5 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.

Jon Ossoffguest24:13In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 3 times (counts)

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Find “Iran / Iranian” in this transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 32 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes2
Oct 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Oct 15, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Oct 7, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Oct 6, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes3
Oct 5, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 30, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes5
Sep 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes3
Sep 16, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes2
Sep 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Aug 19, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jul 30, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jul 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jul 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Jul 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jul 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Jul 16, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jun 23, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jun 10, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jun 9, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Jun 3, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Jun 1, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
May 28, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 26, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 12, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Last Word in 15 of 32 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (47%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on The Last Word next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=32). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP