The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jul 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Katie Hobbs say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
11 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy / Biggs | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Washington | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Election Denier | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 54%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 47%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAVE America Act / SAVE Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 25%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUL21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP